According to the latest weekly report by Xclusiv Shipbrokers, the VLCC market surged dramatically in September, with benchmark rates nearly doubling in just over two weeks, signaling a significant regime shift in the sector.
On Xclusiv Shipbrokers’ Baltic series, the benchmark rose from about USD 45,155/day on 1 September to USD 87,532/day on 18 September a 94% surge in barely two and a half trading weeks. The climb accelerated after 10 September: we crossed USD 70,000/day on the 11th and brushed USD 88,000/day by the 17th, with the intra-September average now roughly USD 65,300/day.
Context and comparison
Context matters: until end-August, the year’s high was just over USD 60,500/day, so this is not a gentle repricing; it’s a regime change. At today’s USD 87.5k, we are running at a little above 2.1x the 2025 year-to-date average of roughly USD 41,500/day and about 5.0x the five-year average (c. USD 17,400/day) calculated from 19 September 2020 to today.Xclusiv Shipbrokers notes that they also haven’t seen these levels in over five years; the last print north of today’s mark was on 30 April 2020, during the floating-storage super-spike, when the Baltic topped USD 92,500/day and briefly soared well above that through late April. Even the March 2023 rally stalled around USD 77,600/day. In other words, this September breakout is the strongest since the pandemic storage episode and the first time in 2025 that VLCCs have decisively retaken leadership from midsize crude segments.
Drivers of the rally
What changed? First, fundamental tonne-mile demand improved right where VLCCs live. Fixtures out of the Middle East Gulf firmed into mid-September, and trans-Atlantic to Pacific VLCC legs rebounded from their summer lows, rewidening voyage lengths and tightening the list. That shift shows up in the quality of the rally: charterers have been holding on-subs at elevated numbers rather than cancelling when the tape wobbles, a tell-tale sign of real S&D pressure rather than hot air.
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Second, geopolitics continue to push barrels and tonnage out of their old grooves. Sanctions and trade frictions are diverting Russian-related flows and lifting demand for compliant capacity, while the compliant VLCC fleet hasn’t grown meaningfully since 2021 as older units drifted into the shadow fleet or aged out. When demand nudges up against a structurally tight supply side, upside convexity appears.
Third, there’s a seasonal and macro overlay. Q4 is historically VLCC’s strongest quarter, and OPEC+ is nudging output higher into year-end. Those volumes haven’t fully hit the water yet, but the market is already clearing the forward program at richer numbers. Add refinery maintenance and the prospect of inventory builds in Q4 and Q1, and you have the pre-conditions for contango and, if onshore tanks fill quickly, a modest return of floating storage. It doesn’t take 2020-style storage to move the needle: even small increments absorb capacity and force charterers up the curve.
Market implications
It’s also worth noting that broker assessments and pool prints have already flashed six-figure headlines this week on individual voyages, even as the Baltic sits just shy of that line. The dispersion reflects route mix, eco/scrubber premia, and timing, but the direction is unambiguous. For S&P, this kind of step-change typically pulls prompt modern tonnage into tighter negotiating ranges and narrows the bid-ask; for period, it encourages owners to keep spot exposure high in anticipation of a Q4 follow-through. Unless oil supply or risk sentiment abruptly reverse, September’s jump looks less like a spike and more like the opening phase of VLCC’s delayed upcycle.
