The Strait of Hormuz represents one of the most dangerous hotspots of tension in the region, as it serves as a vital artery for global trade and energy. Any disruption in the strait could therefore trigger a major shock to the international economy, while securing and defending it remains an extremely complex task due to the heavy density of maritime traffic passing through it.
With the escalation of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s reciprocal response, the strait has once again returned to the spotlight as a key strategic transit point for global trade and energy. Around one-fifth of global oil trade passes through it, along with nearly 20% of global oil supplies, making it a critical hub that directly influences international markets and maritime navigation.
Tracking systems and vessels routes
Captain Haitham Chaaban, consultant and accredited auditor at the International Maritime Organization and Executive Director of Robban Assafina magazine, said in an interview with Al Arabiya TV from Beirut that vessels rely on two main tracking systems. The first is the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which is used by companies such as TankerTrackers and Kepler to determine vessel positions around the world, and the second is the Long-Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT) system.
Chaaban explained that signals transmitted by vessels through the latter system are received only by the vessels’ flag states, meaning they are not accessible to the public. He added that when captains switch off these devices, it does not mean that vessels disappear, as they remain under monitoring by the relevant authorities.
He also noted that some publicly available technologies may sometimes suggest that certain vessels have disappeared, while in reality they did not, but may have altered their routes due to wartime conditions. He added that cargo vessels may change their final destination, noting that many vessels are currently heading toward ports outside the Strait of Hormuz, including ports in the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, in order to ensure the continuity of food security and maintain supply chains required for various industries.
Impact of the crisis on oil and maritime navigation
Captain Chaaban indicated that an escalation of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of global oil trade and nearly 20% of global oil supplies pass — would lead to a sharp rise in oil prices, noting that prices recently reached around $120 per barrel. He also said that maritime freight rates and insurance premiums would rise significantly, with these increases eventually passing on to the final consumer through higher prices for various goods and commodities, affecting products used in daily life as well as different sectors.
He explained that some maritime companies may withdraw from the region, noting that the Arabian Gulf is a closed gulf, unlike the Red Sea which has multiple entry points through Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal leading to the Mediterranean. Moreover, he added that around 3,200 vessels are currently stranded inside the Arabian Gulf, representing about 4% of the global fleet, which constitutes a major challenge for shipowners due to daily operating expenses resulting from vessels being unable to work as port loading and unloading operations have slowed or stopped.
Difficulty of securing the strait
Chaaban also addressed proposed solutions, referring to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to secure safe shipping lanes by providing military protection for commercial vessels. However, he stressed that implementing such a scenario would be extremely difficult due to the scale of maritime traffic and the number of vessels involved, questioning who could guarantee that these vessels would not be targeted.
He warned that targeting a single oil tanker could result in a major environmental and humanitarian disaster, as such vessels carry hundreds of thousands of tons of petroleum products, which could cause widespread pollution in the region and affect several sectors including tourism, while cleanup operations could take a long time.
Chaaban also stated that 42k vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz yearly on an average of 144 vessel per day, emphasizing that protecting dozens of vessels through convoys escorted by US or other military vessels is highly complex. The sheer scale of maritime traffic in the strait makes it extremely difficult to secure militarily, and the issue is far larger than simply escorting a limited number of commercial vessels with a specific number of naval assets.
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