With the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Sea-Intelligence has explored the potential impact on container shipping should shipping lines resume the Suez Canal transit.
It must be stressed that the analysis does not predict when the re-opening might occur, given that the Houthis have not yet declared a ceasefire and that shipping lines did not switch back to the Suez routing during the last ceasefire. Instead, the quantitative effects have been calculated based on the assumption that shipping lines revert to a Suez routing.
As explained, the analysis quantified the capacity absorbed by round-Africa diversions across Asia-Europe and relevant Asia-North America East Coast services, accounting for the roughly four additional vessels needed per round trip for affected services. Then the European import surge was modelled under different scenarios, ranging from an instantaneous switch back to Suez by all shipping lines, to a more gradual phase-in over 2, 4, or 6 weeks.
The two primary impacts would be a significant release of global vessel capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages, and a potentially disruptive surge in cargo arrivals into Europe.The graph above shows the potential increase in weekly European port workload (imports plus exports) compared to the highest historical levels ever recorded. An instant switch back to Suez would shorten supply chains dramatically, causing a temporary doubling of arrivals from Asia for two weeks.
This translates to a 39% surge in total port handling volumes, compared to the previous all-time peak. Even a gradual phase-in over 8 weeks would still result in a 10% increase above previous record highs, during that period.
"Given that the previous peak in March 2025 already caused significant congestion problems in Europe, even a phased switchover presents a considerable challenge for port infrastructure. Globally, a return to Suez routing would release approximately 2.1 million TEU of nominal capacity, equivalent to 6.5% of the current global fleet. "said Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.
