America is sneaking ships through Hormuz three at a time, which tells you most of what you need to know about the state of the strait.
US Central Command has coordinated passage for approximately 70 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz over the past three weeks, with ships turning off transponders to avoid detection, according to US officials speaking anonymously to the New York Times (gated)
The US-guided route runs closer to the Omani coastline rather than the Iranian coast, where ships without Iranian approval face near-certain drone or missile attack, per US officials and shipping analysts cited by the New York Times
Before the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, more than 100 commercial ships transited the strait daily; the current US-coordinated average of three per day represents a marginal resumption, per the New York Times
President Trump toughened the terms of a proposed deal framework on Sunday even as officials had indicated the previous week that an agreement to reopen the strait was close, per US officials cited by the New York Times.
The US blockade in the Gulf of Oman, operational since mid-April, has redirected 116 ships and largely severed Iran's oil exports, per Central Command Of 895 strait crossings between March 1 and May 19, just over half used the Iran coastal route and around 40 percent took a dark or unknown route, per maritime data firm Kpler
The United States military has been quietly coordinating the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, guiding around 70 ships through the waterway over the past three weeks while keeping the operation deliberately low-profile to avoid Iranian retaliation, according to US officials.
Central Command has averaged roughly three coordinated crossings per day over the period, with vessels running without active transponders, a practice known in shipping circles as going dark, to reduce the risk of detection. The route followed by US-guided ships runs closer to the Omani coastline, away from Iranian territorial waters, where vessels attempting passage without Tehran's approval face the near-certain threat of drone or missile attack.
The scale of the operation, while described as higher than some analysts had expected, underscores just how far strait traffic remains from any meaningful recovery. Before the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, more than 100 commercial ships transited the Hormuz daily. Three coordinated crossings per day is not a restoration of normal shipping, it is a controlled experiment in acceptable risk.
US Central Command spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins confirmed the broad outlines of the effort in a statement on Saturday, saying American forces were communicating and coordinating with commercial vessels seeking to transit the strait freely and safely, while stopping short of providing a formal naval escort. The coordination exists as a middle path for shipowners unwilling either to sit idle in a stranded Gulf fleet or to seek passage approval from Iran and pay the tolls Tehran has sought to impose.
The operation's low profile is deliberate. US officials have avoided publicising the corridor precisely because visibility could prompt Iranian targeting of ships known to be operating under American guidance. Analyst Noam Raydan of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy noted that vessel names are unlikely to be disclosed, particularly given the risk of future Iranian reprisals against companies known to have coordinated with Washington.
The covert corridor emerged after the short-lived Project Freedom, a more formal US military escorting initiative announced by President Trump in early May, was quickly wound back partly due to objections from Saudi Arabia. A container ship operated by France's CMA CGM was attacked during that operation, with a subsequent dispute over whether the vessel had followed US guidelines.
Iran retains substantial control over the waterway. Of 895 strait crossings recorded between March 1 and May 19 by maritime data firm Kpler, just over half were made along the Iran coastal route, indicating that a significant number of shipowners and governments continue to coordinate their passages directly with Tehran. Around 40 percent of crossings in that period took a dark or unidentified route.
The diplomatic backdrop remained unresolved as of Sunday. US officials had signalled late last week that Washington and Tehran were close to a framework agreement that would reopen the strait as part of a broader ceasefire extension, but Trump then toughened the terms of that framework, leaving the negotiating timeline uncertain.
The US blockade in the Gulf of Oman, running since mid-April and having redirected 116 ships to date, has largely cut off Iran's oil export revenues, giving Washington leverage but also extending the supply disruption that has kept global energy markets under pressure since late February.
Seventy coordinated crossings over three weeks, averaging three a day, represents a fraction of the pre-war baseline of over 100 vessels daily, and the market should read this as a trickle rather than a reopening. The deliberate suppression of transponder data means shipping analysts cannot independently verify volumes, which keeps a risk premium firmly in place across energy and freight markets.
The revelation that Trump toughened deal terms on Sunday, just as this quiet corridor was being disclosed, reinforces the message that any normalisation of Hormuz traffic remains contingent on a diplomatic resolution that is not yet in sight. For oil traders, the detail that Iran still controls roughly half of all strait crossings via the coastal route underscores Tehran's continued leverage over global energy supply flows.Seventy coordinated crossings over three weeks, averaging three a day, represents a fraction of the pre-war baseline of over 100 vessels daily, and the market should read this as a trickle rather than a reopening.
The deliberate suppression of transponder data means shipping analysts cannot independently verify volumes, which keeps a risk premium firmly in place across energy and freight markets.
The revelation that Trump toughened deal terms on Sunday, just as this quiet corridor was being disclosed, reinforces the message that any normalisation of Hormuz traffic remains contingent on a diplomatic resolution that is not yet in sight. For oil traders, the detail that Iran still controls roughly half of all strait crossings via the coastal route underscores Tehran's continued leverage over global energy supply flows.
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