In its latest briefing, Xclusiv Shipbrokers explores the unfolding crisis in the Arabian Gulf, where heightened tensions and restricted tanker movements are triggering major rerouting, surging freight rates, and acute strains on global energy supply chains.
The conflict in the Arabian Gulf
According to Xclusiv Shipbrokers, the conflict in the Arabian Gulf has rapidly evolved from a geopolitical shock into a structural disruption for global energy logistics, forcing the oil market and the tanker industry to adjust in real time. What initially appeared as a military escalation between the US, Israel and Iran has quickly translated into one of the most serious threats to seaborne oil flows in decades.
The effective paralysis of shipping linked to the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor through which roughly one fifth of global oil supply normally passes — has pushed governments and market participants into emergency mode, highlighting just how fragile the current energy transport system can be when a single chokepoint becomes compromised.
International Energy Agency response
The scale of the disruption is evident in the response from the International Energy Agency. In an unprecedented move, the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves held by its member countries, the largest emergency stock release in its history. The decision reflects the magnitude of the supply shock created by halted or severely reduced shipping flows through the Gulf.
Even so, the measure should be viewed primarily as a short-term buffer rather than a solution. The reality remains that the restoration of normal tanker transit through Hormuz is the only development capable of fully stabilizing the market.
Market behavior under risk
While the strait has not been formally declared closed, shipping behavior already reflects a market operating under extreme risk assumptions. Owners, charterers and insurers are responding to the possibility of escalation rather than waiting for certainty, and the result is a rapid reconfiguration of crude trade routes.
The clearest example is Saudi Arabia’s decision to redirect part of its export flows through the East-West pipeline toward Yanbu on the Red Sea, effectively bypassing the Gulf. From there, crude can still reach Asian buyers, but the logistics are fundamentally different.
Impact on tanker movements
This shift is already visible in tanker movements. A number of VLCCs linked to Chinese state shipping groups have been reported heading toward Yanbu in order to lift additional Saudi cargoes destined for Asia. For the tanker market this development is particularly significant because it does not simply maintain trade flows — it stretches them.
Barrels that would normally load in the Gulf are now moving across Saudi Arabia before beginning a much longer seaborne journey from the Red Sea to Asia, increasing tonne-mile demand and tightening vessel availability at a time when many ships are already avoiding the Gulf due to security concerns.
Adjustments on the sanctions front
At the same time, the energy shock has triggered unexpected adjustments on the sanctions front. In an attempt to ease the immediate supply crunch, the United States has temporarily relaxed restrictions on Russian oil cargoes already at sea, allowing them to be delivered to buyers worldwide for a limited period. This move effectively releases a significant volume of previously constrained barrels back into the market.
India appears to be the main beneficiary of this adjustment. Estimates suggest that up to 65 million barrels of Russian crude currently in transit or floating storage could now be redirected toward Indian refiners over the coming weeks, helping to compensate for the sudden loss of Middle East Gulf supply.
Temporary reshaping of global oil trade
What is therefore unfolding is not simply a regional conflict but a temporary reshaping of global oil trade patterns. Saudi crude is being pushed westward to the Red Sea, Russian barrels are finding new destinations, and tanker routes are lengthening dramatically.
Even without a formal closure of Hormuz, the market is already operating as if the world’s most important energy chokepoint has become unreliable — and shipping is at the center of that adjustment, Xclusiv Shipbrokers concludes.
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