Officially, Europe may be working to eliminate imports of Russian liquefied natural gas, but that is not the short-term trend direction. With Qatari volumes shut off by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, EU utilities are buying even more LNG from their Russian supplier, Novatek, according to a new analysis by the NGO Urgewald.
European ports brought in about 18 percent more gas from Novatek's Yamal LNG plant in the first five months of the year than they did in the same period in 2025. Yamal LNG, located on the Gulf of Ob, is heavily dependent on the EU as a customer for much of the year. It has eastbound marketing options when the Northern Sea Route's ice is thin, but it must ship cargoes west in the coldest months. Europe is the easiest and most natural buyer (geographically) for these shipments, and until 2027, its utilities can still lawfully import Russian LNG.
That dependence was evident in May, when 23 out of 25 shipped LNG cargoes from Yamal went to EU seaports - about 92 percent of the facility's monthly shipments. New contracts can no longer be signed, but long-term contracts signed before March 18 remain valid until January 2027, and are being used in bulk. "The short-term contract ban has had no visible effect so far, because a timing gap in the rules weakens its impact," Urgewald's Sebastian Rotters said.
Cargoes from Arctic LNG 2, the neighboring project next to Yamal LNG, have generally gone to China because of sanctions on the plant itself. Arctic LNG 2 is blacklisted by the U.S., and Russia has assembled a small shadow fleet of under-regulated LNG carriers to move its liquefied gas to market in East Asia. Novatek, the developer of both liquefaction plants, is said to be in talks to buy six special-purpose icebreaking LNG carriers and four ice-class LNG carriers from Mitsui OSK and Hanwha Ocean, which would give it more options for sending gas on eastbound routes.
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